Probability — reference to the fourth year

Remark — Note on the book's organisation

In earlier editions of the course, probability was already introduced in the second year with a dedicated section (definition of an event, incompatible and independent events, conditional probability, contingency tables, diagnostic tests). From the current edition onwards, the treatment has been moved and unified into the chapter Advanced probability (fourth year), where all the material is presented in a systematic and organic way (Kolmogorov’s axioms, the theorems of total probability and of Bayes, trees, the binomial distribution, expected value).

What you should already have known in the second year (and now find developed in the fourth year):

• the classical definition $P(E)=\#\text{favourable}/\#\text{possible}$;
• the complement $P(\overline{A})=1-P(A)$;
• the union $P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B)$;
• incompatible (mutually exclusive) events vs independent events;
• conditional probability $P(A\mid B)$;
• representation with four-region Venn diagrams and contingency tables;
• diagnostic tests: sensitivity, specificity, precision.

Links

Topics: Radicals
Concepts: Probability